commissioner.org
| Source | Dave Anderson |
| Date | 03/01/03/01:17 |
| Roger Burbach, Pacific News Service, Dec 13, 2002
Winning a sweeping victory in Brazil on a platform of economic independence and the alleviation of hunger, president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva recently met President Bush in Washington, D.C. PNS contributor Roger Burbach says Lula, so far, has shown considerable skill in keeping conservatives at bay. RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil--Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the incoming president of Brazil, is demonstrating uncanny success, so far, in moving forward a progressive agenda while keeping his conservative antagonists at bay. Da Silva, commonly known as "Lula," met recently with President George W. Bush in Washington, D.C. From here, da Silva was looking good. "Da Silva reaped the support of the Bush administration while making it clear that his government will set its own agenda and priorities," says Pablo Gentili, an Argentine international analyst at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. "He has an extraordinary capacity to build broad support for his left-leaning policies in the face of domestic and international adversity." Two days after the meeting, Lula named a former FleetBoston banker, Henrique Meirelles, to head Brazil's central bank, a move many called a shift to the political center. But on issues that resonated with a majority of voters -- hunger and the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) -- Lula is standing firm. Before da Silva's arrival in Washington, key Republican Congressional figures, along with right-wing conservatives identified with the Reagan administration's bellicose policies in Central America, were calling for Bush to take a tough stand against the incoming president. They decried a new leftist threat in Latin America, asserting a "Lula, Castro, Chavez axis" was in the making, referring to presidents Fidel Castro of Cuba and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Also prior to his Washington visit, Lula was hit by international speculators who feared that his social policies would hurt Brazil's ability to make payments on its $240 billion international debt. The investment bank of J.P. Morgan on Dec. 2 downgraded its rating of Brazil from "neutral" to "negative." This shift led to a slide in the value of Brazil's currency, the real, and a slump in the country's stock market. But before Lula's inaugural visit to Washington, he positioned himself so that Bush, the politicians and international institutions might find it difficult to openly go after him. The day after he won the presidential election, Lula declared that his No. 1 priority would be to end hunger among 23 million Brazilians, approximately one-seventh of the country's population. The campaign includes subsidies to poor families aimed at keeping their children in school, a fairly radical agrarian reform program and government support for agricultural cooperatives. By making the elimination of hunger a priority, Lula has "inoculated" himself against detractors, said Francisco Meneses, an agrarian expert at IBASE, an independent research institute here. Meneses, who has been participating in the government planning meetings, says the World Bank and the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization have informally committed to spending $5 billion over the next four years on the campaign against hunger. Just days before Lula left for Washington, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Horst Kohler, went to Brazil. After meeting with Lula, Kohler proclaimed that the incoming president "is a leader for the 21st century." He even endorsed Lula's call for increased social spending and lamented J.P. Morgan's downgrading of Brazil's investment rating. One major area of discussion between the Bush administration and Lula in Washington focused on the FTAA. Bush has made this agreement the linchpin of his Latin American policy, calling for all the countries of the hemisphere (except Cuba) to begin reducing trade barriers in 2005. Lula has repeatedly expressed reservations about FTAA, asserting that it favors U.S. economic domination of Latin America. Before going to Washington, Lula positioned himself strategically in the FTAA debate by meeting with regional allies Argentina and Chile. Marcos Arruda, a foreign policy consultant to the incoming government, says Lula was "making it clear he would not grovel for U.S. support and that Brazil has its own agenda and interests in South America." There Lula asserted that MercoSur -- the regional trade block that also includes Paraguay and Uruguay -- should take priority over other trade agreements. Lula even went on the offensive, calling for a common MercoSur currency -- something that would reverse Latin America's trend toward using dollars. In Washington, Lula was able to seize the commercial high ground by pointing to a series of U.S. protectionist measures that actually run counter to authentic free trade. Approximately 25 percent of Brazil's exports, valued at over $14 billion, currently go to the United States. Twenty of the leading products face average U.S. tariffs of 39 percent. If the trade barriers were removed on just four of them -- orange juice, steel, meat and soy products -- annual Brazilian exports to the United States could jump by $2 billion. But trade barriers may not fall quickly. Take orange juice. "Bush's brother Jeb, as governor of Florida, obviously has a stake in keeping out Brazilian juice because of his alliance with local orange growers," says Meneses. He says even the apparent rapport between Lula and George W. Bush will soon sour. "With Iraq and the Middle East the administration has its hands full." Bush, Meneses says, is biding his time. "He will wait for the inevitably deeper reactions of domestic and international interests opposed to Lula's progressive social policies before moving against the new government." Burbach directs the Center for the Study of the Americas and co-edited with Ben Clarke the anthology "September 11 and the U.S. War: Beyond the Curtain of Smoke" (City Lights Books, 2002). |
Copyright (c) 1998, Joongpil Cho